Holiday

Well, I am back from holiday today.
I went to New Zealand for 11 days - so that explains the long silence here.
I had a lot of fun and I learnt how to snowboard.
It was a good time to leave the markets and clear my head. How am I going to trade this bear market?
I will be thinking this now over the next two days and I will post ideas as they come to me here.
It looks like I did not miss anything in the markets while I was gone.
The XJO broke to new lows, along with the rest of the world.
There appears to be no sign of a bottom yet.

I managed to clear my book of everything before I left on my trip. So - continuing on from the ARW trade, I sold the open (luckily), it got creamed 16% intra-day. I guess I learnt that when buying stocks on their highs make sure it has done a lot of volume through other important levels - otherwise the continuing rally will be weak if other holders have not had the opportunity to be churned through the buy side yet. It was a cheap lesson, about $200.

NSL came out of trading halt last week. Down 50% - ouch, thats got to hurt.
Note to self: It something runs and the news turns out to be some stupid merger - it is going to get smashed. Just like that other oil company a few months ago... the fact I can't remember the name does not help. Glad I never got involved in this one.

My agricultural favourites have been punished recently, namely RWD and MAK. I dumped POZ at 80 cents - which is good considering its back to 65 cents. The decision was based on an on close stop of 80 cents (very tight). It was to make sure I cleared my book before I left.

Some news on the Ag space:

"FORMER diamond tsar Joe Gutnick has teamed up with India's largest fertiliser supplier and investment icon George Soros in a proposed phosphate operation in northwest Queensland.

Under a deal announced yesterday in Brisbane, the Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative, or IFFCO, will inject slightly over $100 million into Mr Gutnick's plan to ship phosphate from the company's four holdings around Mt Isa."

I really do wonder if the Georgina basin will become the next Pilbara for Phosphate? I am definetly keeping this theme in the back of my head for the longer term. If it happens I know exactly what to buy... I am totally prepared. This may be the trade that propels my capital to the next level.

I don't know what else to say, other than the fact that I am tired right now... I need to get back into the swing of things. I have had too much fun and not enough work. I feel totally blunt, if i was to trade today I would probably blow $30k being stupid. Usually I am sharp and nothing gets past me. I hope I get my killer instinct back for Monday.

Good thing that I only have to take a holiday once a year. I don't think I could handle twice a year.

Add on Note:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7661139
NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc, the largest U.S. bank, posted a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss on Friday despite $11.7 billion of write-downs and credit losses tied to deteriorating capital markets and the slumping economy.
The second-quarter net loss totaled $2.5 billion, or 54 cents per share, and compared with a year-earlier profit of $6.23 billion, or $1.24 per share. Shares rose 9.1 percent to $19.60 in pre-market trading.
"It appears the worst may be over in the subprime mess," said Andre Bakhos, president of Princeton Financial Group in Princeton, New Jersey. "There appears to be a bandage on the wound."

Dear oh dear...
this really is going to get worse.
People are happy at a $2.5billion loss.
Even if its still smaller than expected, cant they see these banks are still making massive losses?
When will the penny drop?