First post

This is my first post.

The purpose of this blog is to keep track of daily occurences that happen in the market. I trade Australian equities mostly from the speculative end and I reside in Sydney. I am 21 and have been trading for a year. So far so good.

It is the beginning of the financial year so all the tax loss selling and crap from last year has cleared the deck. The markets have fallen 15% the past year. The technical definition of a bear market is 20% off its highs... well it has done that too. Apparently its the worst fall the markets have experienced since the early 1980's?

So I was talking to my fellow traders:

'Is this really as bad as a bear market gets?'

'Well... yeah this is pretty bad if you can't tell. We have not even had two up days in a row for the past month.'

'But I think I can still profit being long only in this type of market... I have been last year anyway. I thought a bear market would be much more difficult than this!!'

'Well, lets see if you can still say that in 3-4 years from now - because thats how long it could last.'

'Fair enough'.

So I guess a little perspective from them was good - considering I am young this is and will be the first bear market someone of my age has experienced yet...

Anyway - today's trading

Got long POS intra-day on the basis of it breaking to a new high.

The problem was I got long intra-day. The fundamentals on POS were not completely compelling. As I understand it has ties to Andrew Twiggy Forrest (now Australia's richest man). And they secured $50million in financing. Anyway - I got long at 1.47 only to see it hit big resistance at 1.50. I scratched out at 1.47 after I realised that I should not have got long in the first place. Why not buy when its closing on its high as opposed to intra-day when you carry extra and unnecessary risk?? Brokerage down the toilet but I correct my mistake as soon as it became evident - so I was happy with that. And in the end, as opposed to being up 15% on the day POS finished up a measly 2% on the day - which does not instill me with much confidence.

At 12 a company called "Phosphate Australia" (a.k.a POZ) listed today too. It has great similarities to MineMakers (MAK) which made me a lot of money the previous year. Not only are their resource estimates similar (MAK's Wonarah deposit is 72MT @ 23% and POZ HighPlains has a Target 80MT @ 20%), they are also in the same Georgina basin in the Northern Tertitory!! Bell Potter floated it at 20 cents... trading opened at 56 cents.

Things I like about POZ:


- JORC is a gimme and will be in the same league as MAK in that regard. 80mt at 20% P205 should be fine with the drill results they had in their prospectus
- There is low overburden ranging from 10-40 meters - very similar to MAK

- Historic drill results show nice continuity and decent economic intervals

- Bullish sector (fertilizer inputs)

- They have a large range of other tenements in the basin. This may also leads to a possible spin off. Exploration upside is promising from a grass roots perspective. They have all the land surrounding Wonarah to the North and East AND South...!!

- 10 mill cash now is decent-

- DCF's bullish - same as MAK's but higher CAPEX for rail/slurry and lower OPEX for the same reason.

- Management look decent... the Chairman found railway for UMC (which is now a monster!)

- No traces of contaminants have been reported i.e. uranium

- Large management ownership.. they will definetly want to push this!

Question marks I had for POZ

- There is no schedule to production, Hmmmm.

- Transportation plans. Although it looks do-able via rail to port 300km away or via road then truck like MAK it all remains unknown. Either way should be fine. Maybe slurry with Century is possible...? But I doubt they would have this additional capacity to hand to POZ for peanuts... its probably better for them to go it alone.


Production looks like it is realistically 3-4 years away... MAK is much closer to production.

Anyway - I am long from open price after buying and selling and mucking around! Keeping them as a Pure Fundamental Long.


It managed to close at 0.59, up 195% on the day (lol).


Finally I got long IGC. I was tossing up between RCH (molybdenum in Indonesia - yes a lot of people have a problem saying this word. It took me a lot of practice lol), AJL (coal seam gas), OMH (a manganese producer) and finally IGC (plantium). RCH looked bid but they started offering into it, I figured the gap would fill. AJL and OMH looked fine but I was planning on selling on open, and the impetus was obviously there. IGC fit the bill as it finished on volume AND on its high at a price it never traded at the whole day! Buyers look like they are scrambling to get in.


Oh and I dumped half my coalworks at a loss (Yes I thought about my losses last... quite natural for humans I think!! its unpleasent so it goes to the back of my mind). I figures I was way too overweight on them considering they are doing NOTHING. I can always buy them back. I kept the other half because I still think they are undervalued.

Happy trading and tight stops